Maduro 1: Abrams 0: But This Match Is Far from Over...
The Saker • March 1, 2019 •
Maduro wins the first round
The
standoff between Venezuela and the AngloZionist Empire last week-end has
clearly ended in what can only be called a total defeat for Elliott
Abrams. While we will never know what was initially planned by the
demented minds of the Neocons, what we do know is that nothing critical
happened: no invasion, not even any major false flag operation. The most
remarkable facet of the standoff is how little effect all the
AngloZionist propaganda has had inside Venezuela. There were clashes,
including some rather violent ones, across the border, but nothing much
happened in the rest of the country. Furthermore, while a few senior
officers and a few soldiers did commit treason and join forces with the
enemy, the overwhelming majority of the Venezuelan military remained
faithful to the Constitution. Finally, it appears that Maduro and his
ministers were successful in devising a strategy combining roadblocks, a
concert on the Venezuelan side, and the minimal but effective use of
riot police to keep the border closed. Most remarkably, “unidentified
snipers” did not appear to shoot at both sides (a favorite tactic of the
Empire to justify its interventions). I give the credit for this to
whatever Venezuelan (or allied) units were in charge of counter-sniper
operations along the border.
Outside
Venezuela this first confrontation has also been a defeat for the
Empire. Not only did most countries worldwide not recognize the
AngloZionist puppet, but the level of protest and opposition to what
appeared to be the preparations for a possible invasion (or, at least, a
military operation of some kind) was remarkably high. While the legacy
corporate Ziomedia did what it always does (that is whatever the Empire
wants it to do), the Internet and the blogosphere were overwhelmingly
opposed to a direct US intervention. This situation also created a great
deal of internal political tensions in various Latin American countries
whose public opinion remains strongly opposed to any form of US
imperial control over Latin America.
In
this respect, the situation with Brazil is particularly interesting.
While the Brazilian government fully backed the US coup attempt, the
Brazilian military was most uncomfortable with this. My contacts in
Brazil had correctly predicted that the Brazilian military would refuse
to attack Venezuela and, eventually, the Brazilians even issued a statement to that effect.
Alas,
there are still plenty of US puppet regimes in Latin America to
mindlessly do whatever Uncle Shmuel wants them to (Colombia would be the
worst offender, of course, but there are others). But that is not the
main problem here.
The
main problem is that the Neocons cannot accept defeat and that they are
likely to do what they always do, double down and make a bad situation
even worse. The head of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, has warned
that the US has deployed special forces in Colombia and Puerto Rico in
preparation for a possible invasion. Uncharacteristically, the Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs made intelligence information public, which
described in some detail what kind of plans the Empire and its allies
had, even before this past week-end’s confrontation. See for yourself:
In
fact, the leaders of the Empire and their puppets are not keeping any
secrets about their determination to overthrow the constitutional
government and replace it with the kind of comprador regime the
US already imposed in Colombia. Pompeo, Abrams and Pence have been
particularly hysterical in their threats, but the entire “Lima Group” is
still at it:
As for the Russian UN Ambassador, he was very clear on what Russia expects to happen next:
The Neocons are not even content to threaten Venezuela, and John Bolton could not help himself and publicly threatened Nicaragua as being next in line for a US-sponsored regime change. He even spoke of a “Troika of Tyranny” reminiscent of the famous “Axis of Evil“.
This
is all hardly surprising: US politicians always resort to infantile
comic-book kind of language when they want to give their threats a
special gravitas. Next we will be told that Maduro is a “New Hitler” and
that he is “genociding his own people”, possibly with chemical weapons
(“highly likely”, no doubt!). If not that, then Maduro will be
distributing Viagra to his forces to help them rape more women.
To those puzzled by the fact that presumably adult politicians use the
kind of language one could find in grade school, I can only say that
this just reflects the state of the political discourse in the US, which
has been dumbed-down to an incredibly low level. Be careful, however,
because while US politicians are rather comical in their infantile,
ignorant, illiteracy, and while they have an almost perfect record of
embarrassing failures, the past decades have also shown that they are
quite capable of murderous rampages (in Iraq alone the US invasion
resulted in over one million dead Iraqi civilians) or of wrecking even a
very prosperous country (which Libya under Muammar Gaddafi definitely
was).
Next, the Empire will probably strike-back
There
is a small chance that Abrams & Co. will conclude that the
situation in Venezuela is a total mess and that the Empire cannot
capitalize on it in the short to middle term. This is possible, yes, but
also highly unlikely.
The
truth is that Mr MAGA and his Neocon puppet-masters have failed, at
least so far, at absolutely everything they tried. And if taking on
China, Russia, Iran or even Syria is no easy task, Venezuela is by far
the most fragile country in what could be called the “Resistance
countries”: Venezuela is far away from it’s allies (except Cuba), it is
surrounded by more or less hostile countries (especially Colombia), it’s
economy is crippled by US sanctions and sabotage and its armed forces
are dwarfed by the immense firepower the Empire has available in the
region. Add to this the truly demonic mindset of Neocons like Abrams and
the future for Venezuela looks bleak.
The
good news is that the Colombians and the rest of the Lima Group
“friends of Venezuela” probably don’t have the military power to take on
Venezuela by themselves. The preferred option for the US would be to
use the Colombians like the KLA was used in Kosovo or how al-Qaeda (and
derivatives) were used against Syria: as boots on the ground while the
US provides air power, electronic warfare capabilities, intelligence,
bomb and missile strikes, etc. The US also has immense naval
capabilities which could be used to assist (and, of course, direct) any
military operations against Venezuela (I highly recommend this analysis by my friend Nat South who describes in some detail the US naval capabilities and operations in the region).
My
gut feeling is that this approach will not work. As is often the case,
the US has all sorts of impressive capabilities except for the main one:
a military force capable of providing the boots on the ground (as
opposed to a non-US proxy). The problem for the US military would not be
so much getting in, as staying inside and getting something done before
leaving – what the US called an “exit strategy”. And here, there are
really no good options for the US.
It
is therefore far more likely that the US will use the weapon which it
truly masters better than anybody else on earth: corruption.
There
is big money, really big money, all around the Venezuelan crisis: not
only oil money, but also drug money. And there are a lot of truly evil
and corrupt people involved in this struggle who will use that
corruption-weapon with devastating effect against the constitutionally
elected government. And, just to make things worse, Venezuela is already
devastated by corruption. Still, there are quite a few factors which
might well save Venezuela from being reconquered by the Empire.
First,
while US Neocons are too arrogant to bother with anybody’s opinion
except their own, and while the various US agencies primarily talk with
the immensely wealthy rulers of Colombia and the rest of Latin America,
it does appear that a strong majority of Venezuelans support their
elected government. Furthermore, US leaders simply don’t understand how
hated the “Yankees” are in Latin America (at least among the masses, not
the comprador elites) and how fantastically offensive the
appointment of a felon like Elliott Abrams as Envoy to Venezuela is to
the vast majority of the people of this continent.
Second,
Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro did empower, for the very first time,
the masses of the Venezuelan people, especially those who lived in
abject poverty when Venezuela was still a US colony. These people are
under no illusion about what a Guaido regime would mean to them. And
while most of the supporters of Chavez and Maduro are not influential or
wealthy, there are a lot of them and they will probably fight to
prevent a complete reversal of all the achievements of the Bolivarian
revolution.
Third,
Latin America might well be changing, just like the Middle-East did.
Remember how, for years, the Israelis could attack their neighbors with
quasi-total impunity and how poorly the Arab armies performed? That
suddenly changed when Hezbollah proved to the entire region and even the
world, that the “Axis of Kindness” (US, Israel, KSA) could be
successfully defeated, even by a comparatively tiny resistance with no
air force, no navy and very little armor. As I never cease to repeat – wars are not won by firepower, but by willpower.
Oh sure, firepower helps, especially when you can fire from far away
with no risk to yourself and your victim cannot fire back, but as soon
as big firepower is met by big willpower the former rapidly fails. There
is a very real possibility that Venezuela might do for Latin America
what the Ukraine did for Russia: act as a surprisingly effective
“vaccine” against the AngloZionist propaganda. An indigenous leader like
Evo Morales, who has declared his full and total support for the
elected government of Maduro, is an inspiration to the people of Latin
America far beyond the borders of Bolivia. The Russian ambassador to the
UN got it right: there are already other leaders after Maduro which the
AngloZionists want to eliminate and replace by a pliable puppet à la
Guaido or Duque Márquez. At the end of the day, this is a typical
dialectical problem: the more brutal and overt the US aggression against
Latin America is, the more successful coups or even invasions the US
organizes, the stronger the anti-Yankee feelings generated among the
people of the continent. Think of it this way: the US has already
terminally alienated the people of China, Russia and Iran, along with
most of the Arab and Muslim world, and thanks to that alienation, the
leaders of China, Russia and Iran have enjoyed the support of their
people in their struggle against the AngloZionist Empire. Could
something very similar not already be happening in Latin America?
Conclusion: focus on the right question
To
defeat the Empire’s plans for Venezuela, it is crucial that we all keep
hammering over and over again: the choice is not between Maduro or
Guiado, the choice is not between poverty under the Chavistas and
prosperity under the AngloZionists. This is how the agents of the Empire
(whether paid or simply stupid) want to frame the discussions. The real issue at stake here is the rule of law. The rule of law inside Venezuela, of course, and the rule of law internationally.
First year law students are often taught that the purpose
of the law is not “justice” per se, but to provide a mechanism to solve
disputes. That mechanism is, admittedly, a highly imperfect one, but it
is understood by civilized people as being preferable to the
alternative. The alternative, by the way, is what happens in
every time a so-called “humanitarian intervention” is launched: a
humanitarian disaster.
Yet, this is the typical modus operandi
of the Neocons (and of all imperialists, really). First, chose a
country for destabilization, then use your control of the international
financial markets and trade to trigger an economic crisis; then, send
your “democracy promoting” spooks and agents of influence to foment
protests or, even better, violent disorders; then send some
“unidentified snipers” if the legitimate government does not use enough
violence to quell the protests, then denounce the leader you want
replaced as “monster” “animal” or even “new Hitler” and threaten to
overthrow him. After that, declare urbi et orbi that it is
“highly likely” that the “new Hitler” will massacre his own people, add a
false flag op if needed, and then declare a “coalition of the willing”
composed of “friends” of the country you want to occupy who will take
action due to the “ineffectiveness of the US”, ditch any thoughts about
international law and only speak of “rules-based order“. Check out how Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov explains the meaning of this substitution:
When
you listen to the supporters of Guaido you will always hear them
talking about how terrible Maduro is, how horrible the economic
situation of Venezuela really is, how corrupt the members of the regime
are, etc. etc. etc. This is all a smokescreen. Even the accusation that
the last elections were stolen by Maduro is just another smokescreen.
Why? Because even if Maduro did steal the election, Guaido did not have
the right to declare himself President, Trump had no right to recognize
him as such, and the Empire had no business threatening a military
intervention or even a violation of the sovereign border of Venezuela
under the ridiculous pretext of bringing in humanitarian aid while, at
the same time, keeping the country under draconian (and fully illegal)
sanctions. The solution to a crisis brought about by a violation of law
cannot be a wholesale abandonment of the very core principles of law,
but such a solution can only be a restoration of law and order by legal
means. Kinda obvious, but so many seem to forget this, that it is worth
repeating. And here, I will again post a graphic which really says it
all:
The
most powerful tools in the arsenal of the Empire are not it’s nuclear
forces or its bloated, if generally ineffective, armed forces. The most
powerful tool in the Empire’s arsenal is its ability to frame the
discussion, to set what is focused upon and what is obfuscated. The
Empire’s legacy corporate Ziomedia even dictates what words should or
should not be used in a discussion (example: never speak of “illegal
aggression” but speak of “humanitarian intervention”).
This is why we must speak of “true sovereignty“, of “international law“, of “constitutional procedures” and of “aggression” and “threat of aggression” as war crimes. We need to continue to demand that basic fundamental principles of civilized societies (such as the principle of “innocent until proven guilty”) be upheld by governments and by the media. We need to deny
the rulers of the Empire the right to declare that they have the right
to completely ignore the most sacred principles of the post-WWII
international order. We need to continue to insist that a just international order can only be a multi-polar one;
that a single World Hegemon can never deliver justice and that there
shall be no peace if there is no justice. Finally, we need to ceaselessly demand that each country and each nation live according to its own traditions and beliefs and reject the notion that a single political model must, or even can, be applied universally.
These
are all principles which the Neocons hate and which they would love to
bundle together under a single all encompassing concept, like George
Orwell’s “crimethink“.
Mostly, the Neocons like to use the “anti-Semite” and “anti-Semitic” to
dismiss these principles, and when that fails, then “terrorist” is
always available for use. Don’t let them do that: every time they try
that trick, immediately denounce it for what it is and continue focusing
on what really matters. If we can force the Neocons to deal with these
issues we win. It is really that simple.
It
is impossible for me to guess how this conflict will play itself out.
Will the brazen arrogance of “the Yankees” be enough to seriously
red-pill the people of Venezuela and the rest of Latin America? Maybe.
My hope and my gut feeling is that it might.
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