COVID case fatality rate (CFR) jumped by 50% after they rolled out the jabs in Santa Clara County in 2021

I've asked the Santa Clara County health department to explain why we shouldn't be concerned. I will update this article when I hear back.

Steve Kirsch

Oct 18

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Executive Summary

Santa Clara County has an excellent open data portal with lots of COVID data posted.

This morning I decided to take a deep dive and I downloaded the long term care facility (LTCF) cases and deaths.

I discovered that after the COVID vaccine rollout began, the COVID case fatality rate increased by 50%. The result was statistically significant.

I asked Ben at US Mortality to double check my work. His results are posted below.

The shots were supposed to make the elderly less likely to die from COVID, not more likely to die from COVID.

Furthermore, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in Santa Clara County didn’t return to normal after the mask mandates, lockdowns, and a stunning 95% vaccination rate in the County. As Ben noted, the ASMR increased in 2021 vs. the 2020 baseline, and 2022 was only slightly lower.

I’ve reached out to media relations at the public health department (PHD) for an explanation as to why we shouldn’t be concerned about these numbers. I will update this article with their response when I hear back.

The data so you can replicate my work

My work is all posted on my Github in the covid repo. The README explains the details.

In calculating the CFR, we shifted the deaths forward by 11 days so we aligned case peaks to death peaks.

On a quarterly basis, the CFR averaged 11.7% in Q4 2020, then jumped to 21% in Q1 of 2021 which is a 1.8X increase.

On a monthly basis, the CFR averaged 12.8% in December 2020; in January 2021 it was 18.9%, a 48% increase.

The month over month increase was highly statistically significant:

Statistics for SCC public health LTCF = 2246 723 330 168 3467
One-sided p-value 9.32001809144462e-06
Max likelihood estimate of the Odds ratio= 1.5812658374393986
Traditional OR= 1.581491261159311
95% Confidence Interval(low=1.2813010293488671, high=1.9468079768650681)

Ben at US Mortality posted this analysis

You can see his code and the graphs here. I’ve reproduced the final graph below.

See how the CFR (blue line) which was flat before the vaccine rollout starts climbing up after the dashed vertical line (vaccine rollout)? It’s supposed to be going down, not up!

Analysis by Ben at US Mortality. As in my work, the deaths were shifted 11 days forward so that the case and death peaks overlapped. Note how the CFR (blue line) goes from flat to an upward slope after the vaccine rollout.

Santa Clara County data from CDC Wonder. All the interventions didn’t result in saving lives. 2021 had higher ASMR than 2020 and 2022 was only slightly better. Graph from US Mortality.

Questions sent the public health department

Was the PHD aware of this issue in 2021? Were there any reports or analysis done to explain why this isn’t a problem? The data is basically opposite what we were expecting.
Was there any internal discussion about warning the public about it?
The prima facie conclusion is that the COVID vaccine caused the CFR to jump since this is a massive instant shift and there were no policy changes. If this isn’t the correct explanation, what is the correct explanation and how can the PHD be so confident that it was NOT caused by the vaccine?

My hypothesis: the COVID vax made the CFR worse.

Here’s my reasoning:

The US Nursing home data showed that the CFR increased after the COVID shots rolled out. See this article for details and graphs.
The full US data showed the CFR increased after the shots rolled out. See this article for details and the CFR graph.
We have a plausible mechanism of action: the vaccine suppresses your immune system.
The verified anecdotes we have would simply be impossible to explain if the COVID vaccine isn’t killing people. Please read this article about the stunning stats at Apple Valley Village.
I have been unable to find a single success anecdote. None of the nursing homes I contacted returned my calls and my requests on X for a success story have all met with silence (or personal attacks for asking the question).