It
starts with Neil Ferguson, a failed computer modeler bankrolled by Bill
Gates. Working out of Imperial College in London with a team, Ferguson
predicted 500,000 COVID deaths in the UK and two million in the US.
His
estimates fueled two gullible political leaders, Donald Trump and Boris
Johnson, who then backed the horrendous lockdown policies that have
devastated their countries' economies. France, Germany, and other
nations followed suit.
I have written about Neil Ferguson's track
record before. Here are highlights, from an April 4, 2020, Business
Insider article. The article tries to be a puff piece, but as it
unfolds, the truth emerges:
"Ferguson's team warned Boris Johnson
that the quest for 'herd immunity' [letting people live their lives out
in the open in the UK] could cost 510,000 lives, prompting an abrupt
U-turn [massive national lockdown in the UK]...His simulations have been
influential in other countries as well, cited by authorities in the US,
Germany, and France."
"On March 23, the UK scrapped 'herd
immunity' in favor of a suppression strategy, and the country made
preparations for weeks of lockdown. Ferguson's study was responsible."
"Dr
Deborah Birx, coronavirus response coordinator to the Trump
administration, told journalists at a March 16 press briefing that the
Imperial paper [Ferguson's computer projection] prompted the CDC's new
advice to work from home and avoid gatherings of 10 or more."
"Ferguson
co-founded the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, based
at Imperial, in 2008. It is the leading body advising national
governments on pathogen outbreaks."
"It gets tens of millions of
dollars in annual funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation,
and works with the UK National Health Service, the US Centres for
Disease Prevention and Control (CDC), and is tasked with supplying the
World Health Organization with 'rapid analysis of urgent infectious
disease problems'."
"Michael Thrusfield, a professor of
veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, told the paper he had
'déjà vu' after reading the [Ferguson] Imperial paper [on COVID], saying
Ferguson was responsible for excessive animal culling during the 2001
Foot and Mouth outbreak [actually Mad Cow]."
"Ferguson warned the
government that 150,000 people could die. Six million animals were
slaughtered as a precaution, costing the country billions in farming
revenue. In the end, 200 people died."
"Similarly, he [Ferguson]
was accused of creating panic by overestimating the potential death toll
during the 2005 Bird Flu outbreak. Ferguson estimated 200 million could
die. The real number was in the low hundreds."
"In 2009, one of
Ferguson's models predicted 65,000 people could die from the Swine Flu
outbreak in the UK - the final figure was below 500."
As if all
this weren't enough, professionals in the computer science field have
looked into the guts of the code Ferguson's team used to make their
COVID projections. The discoveries are stunning.
For example,
here are highlights from a detailed lockdownsceptics[dot]org article,
May 10, 2020, "Code Review of Ferguson's Model":
"...the original
[Ferguson] program was 'a single 15,000 line file that had been worked
on for a decade' (this is considered extremely poor practice)."
"Non-deterministic
outputs. Due to bugs, the code can produce very different results given
identical inputs. They [Ferguson and his team] routinely act as if this
is unimportant."
"This problem makes the code unusable for
scientific purposes, given that a key part of the scientific method is
the ability to replicate results. Without replication, the findings
might not be real at all -..."
"Investigation reveals the truth:
the code produces critically different results, even for identical
starting seeds and parameters."
"...their code is so deeply
riddled with similar bugs and they struggled so much to fix them that
they got into the habit of simply averaging the results of multiple runs
to cover it up... and eventually this behaviour became normalised
within the team."
"...someone [on Ferguson's team] reports that
the model produces different outputs depending on what kind of computer
it's run on..."
"...he [Ferguson] is well aware that the code is filled with bugs that create random results..."
"Reports
of random results are dismissed with responses like 'that's not a
problem, just run it a lot of times and take the average'..."
So
there is no misunderstanding---Ferguson and his team, using the SAME
CODE, took the SAME SET OF DATA and ran these data, and obtained
different results for different runs.
Ferguson and his team at
Imperial College are, at best, delusional. In a world filled with
actual computer-science experts, they chose to take a broken-down Model T
Ford for a spin and made predictions that have led to the takedown of
national economies and horrific human suffering.
And then, to
cover their boggling faults, they floated the psychotic claim that
AVERAGING the results of their individually crippled predictions would
yield accurate and vital results.
Keep in mind, as I mentioned
earlier in the article, that Ferguson's work is bankrolled by Bill
Gates. Gates wanted alarming predictions of deaths, leading to
lockdowns---as a prelude to a COVID vaccine for every person on the
planet. He got those predictions.
Minus Bill Gates and Neil
Ferguson, plus a few staunch and sensible political leaders, we would be
living and working OUT IN THE OPEN, WITH NO RESRAINTS, through a season
called "another year of the flu."
SOURCES:
blog[dot]nomorefakenews[dot]com/tag/neil-ferguson/
businessinsider[dot]com/neil-ferguson-transformed-uk-covid-response-oxford-challenge-imperial-model-2020-4
lockdownsceptics[dot]org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/ |
No comments:
Post a Comment