Commentary
Hill country, located in Texas roughly northwest of San Antonio, is known as Flash Flood Alley in meteorological circles. The state of Texas has “significantly higher flood-related fatalities than any other state, according to a 2021 report from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Texas at San Antonio. In the predawn hours of July 4, 2025, Hill country lived up to its reputation. In less than 24 hours as much as a foot of rain had fallen in parts of the region while residents and campers slept. In Kerrville, Texas the skies opened up and the rain came down so hard and fast that the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in 45 minutes, maxing at 32 feet an hour later, according to a Weather Channel report. The official death count has now risen to more than 70 people for the region, with more than 59 people believed to be dead in Kerr county alone, including 21 children. More rain “threatens the area” during the next 24 to 48 hours (according to NPR). Dozens of Campgrounds and RV Parks Including Fabled Camp Mystic Texas Hill country has some of the beautiful and scenic geography with dozens of campgrounds and RV parks available for people to get away for a nature vacation. There are dozens of overnight and day camps for children in the region. Camp Mystic, established in 1926, is one of the best known all-girls overnight Christian camps, which has been hosting summer sleepaway camp for girls for almost a hundred years. According to Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, over 700 children were in residence at Camp Mystic, when the waters came rushing in the dark pre-morning hours, Friday and rose to the roofs of cabins. Long-time Director of Camp Mystic, Dick Eastland, died as he tried to move some of the campers to higher ground during the flash flood. He leaves behind a wife and eleven grandchildren. A personal friend of ours who grew up in the region has been deeply saddened by the news. Her response must echo the emotional impact of thousands of women across Texas and America who have carried with them some of their best childhood memories and adventures at Camp Mystic. Another former camper whose own daughter has also attended the camp reported that before the devastation Camp Mystic was “probably one of the most serene and peaceful places that I’ve ever seen in my life.” What About the Weather Warnings? There were flood watches issued steadily beginning July 3rd and continuing into July 4th. Around midnight on Thursday, regional weather offices broadcast their first flash flood warnings. The National Weather Service predicted 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Texas Hill Country area. “But the amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts,” reported Texas Department of Emergency Management Chief, Nim Kidd. The region just west of Kerrville, where Camp Mystic and other RV parks and camps were devastated, received over 10 inches of rain. The most senior elected official of Kerr County is Judge Rob Kelly, who said that Kerr County does not have a warning system. He explained that such systems are expensive; “taxpayers won’t pay for it.” The “Land Hurricane” that “Got Stuck” One local Kerrville resident posted a video screenshot of the local weather radar, showing a storm system just sitting on top of Kerrville, dumping water. He declared “It’s like a land hurricane formed over #Kerrville and hasn’t moved for the past 10 hours. I think we’re up to 12 inches of rain in the past 8 hrs.”
Weatherman Plus on Youtube produced a radar map commentary on July 5th, analyzing the conditions that caused the storm system to stall right on top of Kerrville and the Guadalupe River. At 2:00 into his video he explains that there is a large group of rotating thunderstorms that became a “cut-off low.” That is a weather phenomenon of a segment of weather activity that is “displaced (cut off) from the basic westerly current, and moves independently of that current.” Essentially, a high- or low-pressure system is moved by air currents and cut-off systems become stuck over one location. The National Weather Service definition further describes it:
The Guadalupe River at Kerrville, Texas, was ground zero for much of the disastrous flooding and went from 1.82 ft at 5:15 AM to 36.58 ft at 6:45 AM on July 4th.
How Did This Disaster Happen? The cut off low system that parked over Hill Country was pregnant with moisture, providing the near record rainfall that came down overnight in the wee hours of July 4th. Factors that precipitated the tragedy included: · Geography of the region is low hills and valleys with “shallow rivers that wind among hills and through rugged valleys.” · Texas Hill Country is identified as Flash Flood Alley and is “largely concentrated in central Texas hill country and the Houston area.” · The Hill Country region has been in a drought condition, which has hardened the soil and made absorption of the sudden deluge of rain very difficult. The water races across the hardened soil surface, always heading downhill to the streams and rivers that then swell suddenly. · The region is scientifically identified as having the kind of weather that has historically brought about flash flooding. In this instance ”remnants of Tropical Storm Barry and a stuck low pressure system led up to 20 inches of rain” according to weather.com. This is a phenomenon that is well identified as occurring in Hill Country. A study of flood fatalities reports that “the encounter of warm and humid air from the south, the Gulf, and the cold air from the north that occurs right above the Balcones escarpment curve in Texas causing heavy rains and floods (Flash Flood Alley of Texas).” · The National Weather Service predicted up to 7 inches of rainfall, but more than 12 inches fell. The NWS issued a timeline of alerts that were issued ahead of the flooding. Predicting amounts of rainfall and precisely where the rain will concentrate are always challenging. · Nighttime weather events are extremely difficult because residents are asleep and may not be awake or aware of the need to listen to the emergency weather announcements. · The local National Weather Service heavied up their local staff for the coming storm. “There were extra people in here that night, and that's typical in every weather service office — you staff up for an event and bring people in on overtime and hold people over.” · As reported above, the most senior official of Kerr County reported that the county did not have a warning system for flooding. Residents and vacationers rely upon the Emergency Alert System and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Radio that provide emergency alerts. · Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem declared that the weather warning system is “ancient” and “We needed to renew this ancient system that has been left in place with the federal government for many, many years and that is the reforms that are ongoing there.” · Nighttime weather events are extremely difficult because residents are asleep and may not be awake or aware of the need to listen to the emergency weather announcements. It is essential to keep the emergency radio on during the night especially when phones are silenced and televisions are off. There have been theories and politically charged partisan accusations against the National Weather Service (charges of lack of staffing) that contradict local Weather Service reports. One meteorologist issued a lengthy analysis, urging people to avoid partisan politics even as the rescue continues. The disaster continues to unfold as torrential rain continues on Sunday. Remember that water flows down river, and all the lowlands downriver of the initial flooding and continuing deluge of rain are at great risk of also being washed out. The Rescue Response is Massive The State of Texas has “deployed a TON of air, land, & water rescue assets to Kerr County.” Over 850 people have been rescued as of Saturday, according to Texas Governor Abbott and President Trump has signed a federal disaster declaration for Kerr County. Doc Pete Chamber, whom many of us in the medical Freedom Movement have heard about, is on site of the emergency providing thorough and detailed SITREPS [situation reports.] Readers can find his updates and reports on X. Doc Chambers is a Green Beret, Flight Surgeon, and founder of The Remnant Ministry TX. With all the vast billions of dollars that the federal government has wasted through corruption, fraud and stupidity, we would think that an advanced nation like ours could provide warning systems for areas where citizens are unable to afford them. The progressing disaster in the Hill Country of Texas is eerily similar to the Hurricane Helene disaster that unfolded last year in Southern Appalachia around Western North Carolina and Eastern Tennessee. But fortunately, in contrast to that tragedy, the emergency response to this event is immediate and robust. Primary author Ginger Ross Breggin July 6, 2025
July 6, 2025 You’re currently a free subscriber to Breggin Alerts! Exposing Global Predators. We do not paywall any of our substack material, but if you would like to support our work you may upgrade your subscription. We so appreciate the support and encouragement. Thank you!
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