Sputnik: ‘It Looks Like the Democrats Will Go Down Hard in 2020’ & Impeachment Won’t Save Them–Prof

December 12, 2019 James Fetzerblog

SPUTNIK INTERNATIONAL

OPINION

While the House Democrats are proceeding with their impeachment effort the writing is already on the wall that they won’t succeed in removing Donald Trump from office, says an American scholar, predicting a landslide Trump win in 2020.

On 10 December, the House Democrats announced two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump citing alleged abuse of power and obstruction of Congress and insisting on trial and the president’s removal.
Following the House move, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell dropped the hint about a “quick” trial in early January 2020. According to Reuters, no Senate Republican has signalled so far that he/she is ready to impeach Trump which means that the Republican-controlled upper chamber of the US Congress is unlikely to find the president guilty.

‘Impeaching Trump Won’t Save Dems From Political Annihilation in 2020’

According to James Fetzer, professor emeritus at University of Minnesota, the House Dems’ impeachment effort will not only fail to remove Trump from office but is likely to backfire on the Democratic Party during the 2020 elections: “As things stand, it looks like the Democrats will go down hard in 2020,” he predicts.
The professor suggests that the impeachment inquiry launched by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Chair of the House Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff in late September 2019 was driven by the fear of the Dems’ “landslide defeat in 2020, where the president they despise has been succeeding beyond anyone’s wildest expectations”.

“As Rep. Al Green (D-TX) observed, ‘If we don’t impeach this guy, he will get reelected!’ But in appears increasingly probable that, even impeaching Trump is not going to save the Democrats from political annihilation in next year’s election,” Fetzer notes, outlining four major reasons why, by his account, the Democrats’ effort is destined to fail.

First, “the Democrats don’t have a viable candidate”: neither Joe Biden tarnished by the focus on Ukraine’s Burisma case, nor “rich, white, New York billionaire” Michael Bloomberg seem to be a feasible option for the Dems, let alone former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Second, “31 Democrats who gained their seats in the House during the 2018 Midterm elections in red states that Trump had won in 2016 run the risk of losing those seats if they support his impeachment” with many not believing that the charges are serious enough.
Third, “after nearly three years of non-stop (highly biased) [MSM] reporting” about “the Russia interference hoax”, the American public “has grown weary of the demonisation of Donald Trump”, the academic stresses, adding that CNN ratings “have dropped to a three-year low given the non-stop, 24/7 impeachment coverage,” while those of Fox News, with its more balanced coverage, are rising.
Fourth, “during the week following the announcement of the impeachment inquiry, Trump’s approval rating increased by 5 percent,” the professor elaborates. “It had been at 46 percent but climbed to 51 percent. Moreover, in key swing states, his head-to-head comparisons with the leading Democrats similarly improved”.
To further illustrate his point, Fetzer cited the latest Marquette Law School Poll (13-17 November 2019) which indicated that in Wisconsin Trump was leading Democratic frontrunners, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, 47-44, 48-45, 48-43 percent, respectively. “Prior to moving for impeachment, Biden, Sanders and Warren had all led Trump”, the professor recalls.
Still, polls numbers do not reflect the real state of affairs, as historically they underestimated Trump support by around 5 percent, Fetzer continues, suggesting that “the situation is actually even more favourable to the president than what these numbers reflect”.

On the other hand, Trump enjoys nearly 90 percent support from the Republicans which leaves a zero chance for the Democrats to remove him from office, the academic underscores.

© AP PHOTO / PATRICK SEMANSKY

Attorney General William Barr speaks about the release of a redacted version of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report during a news conference, Thursday, April 18, 2019, at the Department of Justice in Washington

Why Anti-Trump Bias Deserves Further Scrutiny

However, it’s half of the story, since the Republicans may proceed with their own investigation into what to be an apparent political bias against Trump and call Joe and Hunter Biden, the so-called “whistleblower” and even Adam Schiff as witnesses, Fetzer suggests.
Mitchell Feierstein, a hedge-fund manager and CEO of the Glacier Environmental Fund Limited, echoes the academic by dubbing the impeachment proceeding as nothing short of a “diversion” by House Democrats Pelosi, Schiff and Jerry Nadler.

“The US Constitution has a mechanism for impeaching a president only if the president commits ‘high crimes and misdemeanours,’ he says. “The current Congressional proceedings are a sham. The probability of removing President Trump from the presidency is zero.”

Citing the recently released FISA report by Inspector General Michael Horowitz and US Attorney John Durham’s investigation into the handling of the so-called Trump-Russia probe, also known as Operation Crossfire Hurricane, Feierstein suggests that the inquiries may “result in indictments.”

The IG Horowitz report was published on Monday, listing numerous procedural violations by the FBI in acquiring FISA warrants to spy on Donald Trump’s campaign. However, the inspector general concluded that Operation Crossfire Hurricane was opened by the FBI with appropriate predication and was not politically motivated.
Following the release of Horowitz’ findings, US Attorney Durham issued an official statement revealing that his team “do[es] not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened.” Attorney General William Barr, who appointed Durham to conduct the inquiry into the matter, also threw out Horowitz’ statement with regard to the apparent lack of bias on the part of the FBI as well as the predication to open the probe into doubt in his recent interview with MSNBC.
The views and opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect those of Sputnik.

On Tue, Dec 10, 2019 at 1:38 PM James Fetzer <jfetzer@d.umn.edu> wrote:

The Democrats have had to cope with the prospect of a landslide defeat in 2020, where the President they despise has been succeeding beyond anyone’s wildest expectations, including reviving the US economy and reducing unemployment among Blacks and Latinos to historic lows, which has been reflected in recent polls showing that around 34% of Black Likely Voters support Donald Trump–which spells catastrophe for their party. As Rep. Al Green (D-TX) observed, “If we don’t impeach this guy, he will get reelected!” But in appears increasingly probable that, even impeaching Trump is not going to save the Democrats from political annihilation in next year’s election. Here are some of the most important reasons for drawing that inference.

(1) The Democrats don’t have a viable candidate. Joe Biden has been tarnished by the focus on Ukraine, where he had publicly boasted of holding up $1 billion in US aid were the Ukranian prosecutor looking into Burisma not fired within the six hours before he flew back to the US. His statement before the CFR has already been featured in a Trump political commercial. Six criminal cases involving Joe and Hunter have just been announced in Ukraine. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), has already dropped out of the race. Michael Bloomberg has entered the race, but they are unlikely to nominate one rich, white, New York billionaire to run against another. A new Harvard-Harris poll shows Hillary as the top choice for Democratic voters, which would be ironic.

(2) 31 Democrats who gained their seats in the House during the 2018 Midterm elections in red states that Trump had won in 2016 run the risk of losing those seats if they support his impeachment. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D-NJ) appeared on “Sunday Morning Futures” (17 November 2019) and reported that he was not going to support the resolution for impeachment and that he knew of many others who were similarly disinclined. No doubt, tremendous pressure is going to be imposed upon them, but it would not be surprising if, under these circumstances, control of the House will revert to the GOP because of Pelosi’s move to impeach the President. Many do not believe the charges are serious enough to justify taking that extraordinary measure.

(3) After nearly three years of non-stop (highly biased) reporting by the major networks, CNN and MSNBC, promoting the Russia interference hoax, which fell completely apart when Robert Mueller appeared before Congress and did not know the contents of his own report, the public has grown weary of the demonization of Donald Trump. CNN’s prime-time Town Hall with Nancy Pelosi, timed to follow her announcement that the Judiciary Committee was authorized to prepare articles of impeachment, fell flat. Indeed, CNN ratings have dropped to a three-year low given the non-stop, 24/7 impeachment coverage. Fox News, which has much more balanced coverage, is drawing more viewers every day than CNN and MSNBC combined.

(4) During the week following the announcement of the impeachment inquiry, Trump’s approval rating increased by 5%. It had been at 46% but climbed to 51%. Moreover, in key swing states, his head-to-head comparisons with the leading Democrats similarly improved. In Wisconsin, for example, where he had lagged behind the three leading Democratic candidates, the situation reversed, where the latest Marquette Law School Poll (13-17 November 2019) showed Trump leading Biden 47-44%; leading Sanders 48-45%; leading Warren 48-43%; and leading Buttigeig 57-39%. Prior to moving for impeachment, Biden, Sanders and Warren had all led Trump. And it’s reasonable to expect that this trend will continue in his favor.

Historically, polls have underestimated Trump support by around 5%, which means the situation is actually even more favorable to the President than what these numbers reflect. Since the President enjoys around 90% support among Republicans, the prospects for his removal from office during the Senate trial are extremely remote. Even though it appears obvious that this effort is simply a ploy to tarnish Trump and win votes for Democrats in 2020, as Michael Snyder has observed, the  tables will be turned when the Republicans are in control and you can expect that Joe and Hunter Biden, the so-called “whistleblower” and even Adam Schiff will be called as witnesses. As things stand, it looks like the Democrats will go down hard in 2020.

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