It’s a Numbers Game in the Coup to Stop Johnson and Brexit
September 30, 2019
When the decision came down from the Supreme Court I began my weekly article for Strategic Culture Foundation. They published it today. In that piece I outline what the dynamics are and what the options were for both sides of the Brexit conundrum.
So, now with this ruling in place what’s next and what’s really going on tactically and strategically?After the shouting match in Parliament on Tuesday Jeremy Corbyn declined to table a motion of No Confidence. I believe his side of the House was as surprised by Johnson’s refusal to step down as Johnson and crew were taken aback by Corbyn’s refusal of a General Election.
Johnson, for his part, refuses to resign. He can’t or won’t get anything past this hostile Parliament. This Parliament will reconvene to push more legislation to attempt to tie his hands against negotiating with the EU from any position of strength.Progressivism: A Prime... Best Price: $9.47 Buy New $3.99 (as of 09:50 EDT - Details)
Remember what made this ruling necessary. Parliament doesn’t want any meaningful Brexit and refused to accept Johnson’s offer of a General Election to allow the people to form a new government to break the deadlock.
Why? Because they know that a new Parliament would be decidedly more Leave than Remain. The polls are perfectly clear on this. Neither Jo Swinson of the Liberal Democrats nor Jeremy Corbyn of Labour have a prayer in hell of becoming Prime Minister.
If they did, they would have accepted Johnson’s offer. In fact, his offer was derided as a cheap political trick.
If Johnson were to resign here, he would be replaced by a caretaker government under Corbyn, most likely, which would then table a Second Referendum with two versions of Remain on the ballot.
This strategy neatly bypasses the original referendum to ensure the threat to the European Union is nullified.
And now that they’ve had a couple of days to think it over, we now know that this is what they are planning to do.
Nicola Sturgeon, the head of the Scottish National Party (SNP) tweeted out:
Furthermore, the Liberal Democrats are talking in public about a coup against Johnson. But they won’t move against him until they “know Jeremy has the numbers.” Every day they delay is another day in which he doesn’t have the numbers.
So, why wouldn’t he?
At least 20 former members of the Conservative Party, when push came to shove, would vote with Labour, the LibDems and the SNP on this. But, the bigger question is how many from their own parties would ‘defy the whip’ and not vote against the Government.
They would ‘defy the whip’ because they are rightly scared of a General Election which would see them booted out of office. But, that said, would they do it? My guess is yes because the pressure on them at this point to betray Brexit is enormous.
The entire British political and social elite want this pesky Brexit bother binned so they can move on with erecting their new, more perfect European Union on the ashes of trivial things like sovereignty and basic human dignity.
Editorial comments aside, here’s the situation as it stands. If the vote happens and Johnson is deposed, they will have 14 days under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act to form a ‘caretaker government.’ If Corbyn ‘has the numbers’ and the agreement from the other parties then this will happen.
It will take All of Labour (247 seats), the SNP (35), the LibDems (18) and at least another 11 MP’s to get this done. And then they have to also agree on what their proposal to the EU is.
Most of Corbyn’s shadow cabinet are with the LibDems and want Article 50 revoked and the whole thing called off. Corbyn doesn’t want that and has only reluctantly been dragged down this course in order to try and preserve some semblance of Brexit, which he does believe in.
What they will offer the EU is the biggest stumbling block to this backroom deal. But, at the final moment, goal-oriented behavior will take over and an agreement will be reached.
After Johnson is gone and Corbyn installed, the Benn bill will come into effect, an extension will be negotiated and a bill for a 2nd referendum will be tabled immediately. Once Corbyn secures a deal with the EU that referendum will happen with two choices, Remain (which shouldn’t be on the ballot) and Corbyn’s deal.
Basically Remain vs. Remain. This will ensure that the most forceful point of the Leave camp, that the 17.4 million people who voted to Leave are being ignored, is neutralized.
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I told you, only Hobson’s Choices from here on out for the unwashed, thick and uppity plebes who think they have any other obligation than to be tax cows milked by vampiric oligarchs convinced of their own superiority.
Then they will go for a general election hoping that the Referendum will dispirit British voters to the point of not voting, which will give Remain the win and the General Election will be a moot point. The outcome would likely be a hung Parliament, as the malaise over Brexit betrayed will keep people at home. Parliament will be paralyzed and in no position to negotiate the final terms of surrender to the EU or carry out the next stage of the negotiations.
That’s why the Second Referendum is so important. It gives Remainers all the ammunition to throw back at the Leavers saying, “See the people have spoken!”
It’s vicious and dishonest, but that’s politics, folks.
But all of that is moot if they don’t have the numbers. Then Johnson will continue to run the clock down, go to Brussels on October 17th and try to work for a deal that isn’t BRINO — Brexit in Name Only. That’s why it’s obvious that there will be a coup against Johnson without an election.
The strategy now is to whip MPs into overthrowing Johnson’s government, securing that extension and destroying what’s left of the British political system.
Reprinted with permission from Gold Goats ‘n Guns.
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