VAERS lit up like a Christmas tree when the COVID shots rolled out. The CDC looked the other way.This is my "kitchen soup" VAERS article that talks about the under-reporting factor and how they gaslight people into believing that "there's nothing to see here folks."
Executive summaryVAERS (the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System) isn’t great (since it’s a voluntary reporting system which means we don’t know the denominator), but it’s the best we have. In comparison to the other adverse event reporting systems in the world, it’s miles ahead because you can search it. It’s super useful for spotting safety signals, like the 770 safety signals triggered for the COVID vaccine that the CDC tried to bury away and was only exposed via FOIA. So when it lights up like a Christmas tree in death reports after a “safe and effective” vaccine rolls out, it’s a sure thing that the vaccine is unsafe. Many in the medical community would try to convince you otherwise. Here’s everything you need to know (and more) in the context of the COVID vaccine reporting. VAERSThe entire point of the VAERS system is to identify safety signals. Did you know that for the COVID vaccines, the death reporting rate to VAERS was nearly 650X normal. To me this is a safety signal. But to the medical community it’s a “meh.” Let’s look at the numbers. Around 70% of those aged 65 get the flu shot in late 2019 right before COVID started. The flu shot is given primarily in Sept to Oct. From ChatGPT (so I’m being unbiased):
So was slightly higher uptake for the COVID shots (about 15% higher): Let’s compare the VAERS death
report for those who got their flu shot in 2020 vs. those who got their
COVID shots on or before May 2021 for those 65 and older. Flu shot first:
Now the COVID shot:
The ratio is 10239/13= 787x increase in death reports. So we expected a ratio of 2.3 based on the number of shots and number of recipients, so we expected to get around 30 death reports. Instead, we got 10,239 which is 10,200 more reports than expected. If I worked at the CDC in public relations, I’d likely describe that as “an elevated reporting rate, but nothing to be concerned about. Get your shots ASAP!” Are those numbers within statistical limits? If we expect to get 30 deaths and observe 10,239, that is such a low probability it is lower than python can compute (less than 1e-308). So that’s not it. Maybe it is because VAERS is just fully reported TODAY and it was just under reported before?But that doesn’t work since VAERS is currently 40X under reported during COVID (see This analysis based on gold standard CMS death reports), so we’d have to believe that before 2021 VAERS was underreporting deaths by a URF= 40* 10239/30=13,000 for deaths. That’s possible, but nowhere in the literature can you find a number for the URF for death for any vaccine for death reports. That’s not anywhere close to a 13,000 URF. So our hypothesis of “fully reported today” must be rejected. I know ChatGPT likes to gaslight people into thinking it’s “stricter reporting requirements” but when you do the math you see how nonsensical this is! Overall, there were over 17,000 deaths reported to VAERS for the COVID vaccines given in the period of interest (2021-2022) from US sources (there were a similar number from other countries). Do you know anyone who likes making VAERS reports? I haven’t found one!I have not found a single person who likes making VAERS reports and I have not found a single hospital who encourages employees to make VAERS reports for ANYTHING. NOT ONE HOSPITAL in the US. See this post. And CDC does NOT reach out to doctors or advertise to doctors. The CMS analysis gives a VAERS URF of 44 for death reports, which is darn close to the 41 that I calculated from the anaphylaxis dataThis analysis using CMS data (cited by judge Q) showed the URF of VAERS is 44 for COVID vaccine reports determined based on “gold standard” CMS death reports happening within 14 days after the COVID shot. So the question is what URF do you believe for the COVID SAE reporting rate for death and why do you think that URF would be more definitive for death reports than the CMS data method based on deaths shortly after vaccination? Estimating the number of people killed by the COVID shotsIf we GENEROUSLY deduct 1,000 deaths as “background” deaths, then 16,000 excess death reports * 44 = 704,000 excess deaths associated with the COVID vaccines.
Skidmore (2023) used a survey methodology to estimate that 289,789 (95% CI: 229,319 – 344,319) were killed by the shots in 2021 alone. So if you double that (for two years worth of deaths), that would be 480,000 deaths which is in the ballpark above. The Rasmussen survey, done in March 2023, determined that the vaccine killed 10% fewer people than COVID did. They asked people specifically whether a FAMILY member died FROM covid vs. FROM the vaccine. We know from the CDC data that over 1M people died from the COVID virus, so the estimate there is that at 900K people died from the COVID vaccine. We can adjust that down by 24/27 due to the 3 extra months and we have 800K for the 2021 to 2022 period based on people judging FAMILY members. 70% of people taking the survey took the shots and believe the vaccine is safe. So this is a STUNNING number that they think it’s the same number who died from the shots as from COVID. Nobody else has dared to do the survey or explain the results. So unless there is a survey where you then contact each respondent and determine whether they are lying or not, the evidence out there shows a huge problem that should not be dismissed without actually looking at the data and showing it is overstated and by what amount. Where is that study? It will never be done because they don’t want to know. 800K is more than the VAERS estimate, but the VAERS death reports are unlikely to be made unless that death happens shortly after the shot so when a vaccine is killing people over a longer period, it will undershoot. The clearest data is in the CMS article estimating the URF. Here’s the key slide comparing 189 (covid vax) vs. 20 (shingles vax) death rate in 14 days post shot. Nearly a 10X mortality difference and nobody says anything!?! A 25-year average age difference could cause that. So let’s say all the 65 year olds get the shingles shot. This would imply that the average age of people getting the COVID and flu shots is 90 years old. Pretty unlikely. The only explanation left (assuming the flu shot is perfectly safe): the COVID shots double your mortality over the first two weeks.
The flu vaccine is a pretty deadly vaccine because it kills 5 per 100,000 on Day 0 as I’ve written about in the past. So let’s look at the 14 day death rate of the safe COVID vax vs. the flu vaccine since they are given to the same cohort. We have a 14-day excess mortality of .9 deaths per 1,000 vaccinated in Medicare (189-(105-5)). You cannot argue this is elevated claiming that “every who got the shot was infected with COVID at the time: because you can’t even get close to your doctor if you have COVID and the CDC strongly advises not having the shot until you are not sick..Plus it would be preposterous to make such an assertion without evidence. So there is no justification for this. Also, 2020 was a high COVID year and seniors got just as many shingles shots and those are given year round, and there was no increase during 2020 in mortality so claiming this was “COVID” simply isn’t supported by the data. So let’s extrapolate:
So perhaps 150M doses given in 2021 and 2022. Let’s look at Jan 2021 in VAERS for over 65 and we find 522 people died in the month they were vaccinated which is 1/3 of the total reports. So our 135K in 14 days is likely only at least 1/3 of the total deaths which gets us to an estimated 405K deaths due to the shots. That compares to the 704,000 excess deaths estimated from the VAERS excess mortality reports WITHIN 2x so we are in the ballpark. So you have:
All from third party data sources all estimating roughly the same numbers within a factor of 2.There were about 40% more Moderna death reports than Pfizer death reports. That’s pretty darn incriminating because NOBODY has been able to explain to me how THAT is possible if the vaccines are equally safe. Here’s how the numbers are calculated:
So Pfizer was 60% vs. Moderna 40% of the mRNA vaccines given. So doses given were 1.5 Pfizer to 1 Moderna. But now let’s do the death per dose. If we do the math ( 296/194/(6628/6099) =1.4), Moderna generated 40% more mortality reports on a PER DOSE basis than Pfizer. If people are just reporting “coincidental deaths”, then there would be NO difference in the death reports per dose by brand. Maybe this is because Moderna was given to older people? That seems unlikely So the only way we can possibly see such a huge differential by BRAND would be if the death reports are deaths are actually caused by the vaccine since that allows for the greatest brand reporting disparity %. Otherwise, if VAERS are a combo of background deaths and causal deaths, Moderna would have to be a lot more than 50% more deadly than Pfizer and nobody believes that! So just like we’ve been saying all along, those excess death reports in VAERS are all excess caused by the vaccine itself, and not “overreporting” because overreporting would never give you a 50% mortality difference; it would give you no brand difference whatsoever. This means that Pfizer had 45*6000 deaths (reducing to allow for coincidental deaths) per 296M doses which is .9 death per 1,000 doses. For Moderna, it’s 40% higher at 1.2 deaths per 1,000 doses. There were 575M doses given in the US through mid 2022, leading to 575*(.9*.6 + 1.2*.4) = 586K deaths which over a 2 year period would be an increase of roughly 10% per year. Is this plausible that there could be 600K deaths?The answer is YES and it’s consistent with other NCACM estimates using a variety of different methods including surveys, baseline death increases (below), and the Czech analysis. Below is the US ACM for all ages. See the 13% per year increase in baseline deaths? There were 662K baseline excess deaths available. It’s plausible that most of that is the vaccine because nobody can explain such a sudden rise. It’s NOT COVID because COVID comes in waves so mortality should return to baseline. Something is keep US ACM from returning to baseline. Hmmm…. I wonder what it could be? :)
Can you spot the unsafe vaccine hiding in this image?This is the actual VAERS death reports by year:
If you see nothing wrong, you are highly qualified to work in the vaccine safety monitoring department of the CDC. Give my pal John Su at the CDC in Atlanta a call and tell him I sent you! SummaryDon’t let them gaslight you about VAERS. It’s doing what it is designed to do: lighting up when you roll out an unsafe vaccine. They just are refusing to look at it. Invite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Steve Kirsch's newsletter, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe.
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