Lockdowns failed to alter the course of pandemic and are now destroying millions of livelihoods worldwide, JP Morgan study claims
- JP Morgan research said infection rates had fallen since lockdowns were eased
- It suggested the virus ‘has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated’ to lockdowns
- Report said they were imposed with little thought of ‘economic devastation’
Coronavirus lockdowns
have failed to alter the course of the pandemic but have instead
‘destroyed millions of livelihoods’, a JP Morgan study has claimed.
Falling infection rates since lockdowns
were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which
are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’, a report
published by the
financial services giant said.
Denmark is among the countries which has
seen its R rate continue to fall after schools and shopping malls
re-opened, while Germany’s rate has mostly remained below 1.0 after the
lockdown was eased.
The report also shows many US states
including Alabama, Wisconsin and Colorado enjoying lower R rates after
lockdown measures were lifted.
Author Marko Kolanovic, a trained
physicist and a strategist for JP Morgan, said governments had been
spooked by ‘flawed scientific papers’ into imposing lockdowns which were
‘inefficient or late’ and had little effect.
‘Unlike rigorous testing of new drugs,
lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might
not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than
Covid-19 itself,’ he claimed.
This graph published in a JP Morgan report shows
that many countries saw their infection rates fall rather than rise
again when they ended their lockdowns – suggesting that the virus may
have its own ‘dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated’ to the emergency measures
A second graph shows a similar effect in the US,
showing that many states saw a lower rate of transmission (R) after
full-scale lockdowns were ended
The JP Morgan report includes graphs
showing that ‘the vast majority of countries had decreased infection
rates’ after lockdowns were lifted.
Infection rates have continued to decline
even once a lag period for new infections to become visible is factored
in, the report says.
A second graph shows a similar effect in
the US, showing that many states saw a lower rate of transmission (R)
after full-scale lockdowns were ended.
They included Colorado, Iowa, Alabama,
Wyoming, Wisconsin and Mississippi, according to the chart, although not
all states are included.
Nevada and North Dakota are among the
exceptions which appear to have had a higher rate of transmission since
normal life began to resume.
The R rate shows how many people each
virus patient typically infects, and some countries regard a rate below
1.0 as a key indicator that the epidemic is in retreat.
‘While we often hear that lockdowns are
driven by scientific models, and that there is an exact relationship
between the level of economic activity and the spread of [the] virus –
this is not supported by the data,’ the report says.
‘Indeed, virtually everywhere infection
rates have declined after re-opening even after allowing for an
appropriate measurement lag.
‘This means that the pandemic and Covid-19
likely have [their] own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent
lockdown measures that were being implemented.’
Those dynamics may be influenced by
increased hand-washing and even weather patterns but seemingly not by
full-scale lockdowns, the report suggests.
‘The fact that re-opening did not change
the course of the pandemic is consistent with studies showing that
initiation of full lockdowns did not alter the course of the pandemic
either,’ it says.
An Oxford University professor has
previously suggested that the crisis in Britain began falling from its
peak before Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown on March 23.
Professor Carl Heneghan said last month
that the peak of new cases had come on April 8, suggesting a peak of
infection three weeks earlier around March 18.
The JP Morgan analysis linked the decision
to impose lockdowns to ‘flawed scientific papers’ predicting millions
of deaths in the West.
‘This on its own was odd, given that in
China there were only several thousand deaths, and the mortality rate
outside of Wuhan was very low,’ it says.
‘In the absence of conclusive data, these
lockdowns were justified initially. Nonetheless, many of these efforts
were inefficient or late.’
All 50 US states have at least partially
reopened this week by relaxing restrictions on businesses and social
distancing in varying degrees across the country
BoE governor says upcoming recession is ‘probably unprecedented’
In some European countries, studies
suggest that the measures ‘did not produce any change in pandemic
parameters’ such as the R rate, the JP Morgan report says.
Kolanovic says that lockdowns had remained
in place even as ‘our knowledge of the virus and lack of effectiveness
of total lockdowns evolved’.
‘At the same time, millions of livelihoods were being destroyed by these lockdowns,’ he writes.
Countries in lockdown are having to blow
huge holes in their budgets to counter the economic standstill which is
forcing millions of people into unemployment.
The report also cites ‘worrying populism’
as an obstacle to re-opening the economy, for example in the US where
senators passed an anti-China measure this week.
It warns that economic activity in the US
is ‘now largely following partisan lines’ as Republican and Democratic
governors adopt different strategies for their states.
As well as casting doubt on the wisdom of
imposing lockdowns in the first place, the report suggests that
economies could now be re-opened more quickly.
Denmark is among the countries which has started re-opening its economy without seeing a new surge in virus cases.
Zoos, museums and cinemas have re-opened
early in Denmark with many children now back at school after scientists
said the R rate had continued to fall.
Germany has also been confident enough to
scale back the lockdown after the R rate mostly stayed below 1.0
following an initial lifting of restrictions.
However, chancellor Angela Merkel has
repeatedly urged caution and warned that a second wave of virus cases
could leave hospitals overwhelmed.
The UK government has similarly warned
that some restrictions could be re-imposed if there is a ‘sudden and
concerning’ rise in new cases.
Between May 12 and May 19, in a rolling seven
day average, Britain saw 5.75 deaths per million inhabitants. In Sweden
the figure was 6.25 deaths per million, higher than the United States
(4.17), France (3.49), Italy (3.0), Spain (2.95) and Germany (0.81)
Apocalyptic predictions from the Bank and
England and others show the UK is on track for the worst recession in
300 years, when the Great Frost swept Europe
The World Health Organisation has urged
‘extreme vigilance’ about lifing lockdowns, saying there is ‘always the
risk that the virus takes off again’.
WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said
that some countries such as Germany and South Korea had systems in place
to respond to a new surge.
However, Britain’s efforts to set up a
tracking and tracing system have been hampered by delays in rolling out
the necessary app.
Tedros said that a ‘comprehensive package
of measures’ is needed until a vaccine becomes available, which is
likely to be many months away at least.
It is not yet fully clear how many people
have been infected or to what extent they are now immune, but most
people remain susceptible.
Some vaccine projects have already begun testing humans, including at Oxford University.
Up to 1,102 participants have been
recruited across multiple study sites in Oxford, Southampton, London and
Bristol, although results are not expected for weeks.
Imperial College London is also
progressing with its vaccine candidate and will look to move into
clinical trials by mid-June, with larger scale trials in October.
However, experts and politicians warn there is no guarantee that an effective vaccine will ever be developed.
Even if it is, there are concerns about
how it will be distributed in large enough quantities to bring the
pandemic to a standstill.
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