The War on Yemen Just Went from Bad to Worse for Saudi Arabia
The UAE’s large-scale military drawdown in Yemen
is extremely disadvantageous to the Saudis’ strategic objectives in the
conflict and will likely lead to the Kingdom scrambling for a
“face-saving” exit of its own.
***
Nobody’s won the War on Yemen (except for maybe the
Southern Transitional Council), but that
doesn’t mean that they lost,
either, except for Saudi Arabia. The Ansar Allah (“Houthis”) administer
the most demographically and economically important part of the country
even though they failed to take control of the state’s entire territory,
while the UAE obtained invaluable experience managing mercenary groups
and also acquired several regional bases throughout the course of its campaign, to say nothing of the rising South Yemeni proxy state that
they’re largely responsible for creating. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is
less secure than it was at the onset of the conflict now that the Ansar
Allah’s military capabilities have evolved to the point of enabling them
to regularly bomb the Kingdom’s territory, and it’s dangerously falling into the trap of “mission creep” by seeking to replace some of the withdrawn Emirati units with its own.
Saudi Arabia has hitherto eschewed any significant
involvement on the ground in favor of more safely bombing targets from
the air, but its ally’s military drawdown is
compelling it take a more direct role in the conflict. This is a
mistake since the Kingdom cannot possibly hope to make progress in the
war on its own if it was unable to do so when the UAE and the Emirate’s
much more numerous mercenary allies were fighting on the ground on
Riyadh’s behalf. It appears as though MBS isn’t quite sure what to do in
this scenario which seemingly caught him by surprise so he’s reacting
as expected and diving deeper into the quagmire instead of extricating
himself from it. Nevertheless, it appears to only be a matter of time
before his country realizes the inevitability of a “compromise” solution
to the conflict, one which will probably recognize the de-facto
restoration of North and South Yemen’s independence through a
“federalized” arrangement as the most realistic outcome of the war.
In any case, it’s impossible to spin the war as a
success for the Saudis since their defeat is visible for the entire
world to see. The world’s largest weapons purchaser was
unable to dislodge a group of rebels from the neighboring state in
which it traditionally wielded domineering influence for decades despite
spending hundreds of billions of dollars attempting to do so. Its main
ally, the UAE, has left it high and dry in pursuit of its own interests
mainly having to do with restoring its reputation after it was
besmirched through its leading involvement in what’s since become the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
Saudi Arabia is now forced to scramble for its own “face-saving” exit
as well, though that might no longer be possible after the obviousness
of its strategic defeat. Although some might still look to Saudi Arabia
as the leader of the “Ummah” for reasons of religious symbolism, few
would consider it the community’s geopolitical leader after the War on
Yemen.
*
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Andrew Korybko is an
American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship
between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road
global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a
frequent contributor to Global Research.
Featured image is from Yemen Press
The original source of this article is Global Research
Copyright © Andrew Korybko, Global Research, 2019
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