The Crooks, the Clowns and the Nazis
A Dynamic Analysis of Ukraine Politics
The Saker • October 26, 2017
The latest big news out of the Ukraine
Have
you heard what the latest big news out of the Ukraine is? No? There is a
mini-Maidan under way and Ukrainian nationalists seem to hope that
Poroshenko will be kicked out before the end of the
week. You did not
know? Well, that is the real big news, the fact that you did not hear about this.
Truthfully,
what is going on is kind of interesting. Let me sum it up: the former
President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili (who was stripped of his
Georgian citizenship and of this Ukrainian citizenship) recently crossed
the border (through Poland, of course) and proceeded to travel to Kiev
to demand Poroshenko’s resignation. You think that I am kidding? Check t
he Wikipedia article about him,
it has all the details. It gets better. There is a consensus amongst
analysts that Saakashvili is being used as a battering ram by somebody
far more influential – Iulia Timoshenko, of course. But what is really
new is that many well informed analysts and commentators seem to think
that the USA and EU are not the main driving force behind these latest
developments (though they are involved, of course).
What is going on here?
Well,
as I said, the big news is that you did not hear about it. You did not
hear about it because fundamentally nobody cares, least of all the Trump
Administration. True, the Trump Administration is so busy
self-destructing that it does not really care about Kurdistan either and
that implies that it does not even really care about the Holy of Holies
: Israel (cry me a river Bibi!). So never mind the Trump
administration, even the Ziomedia mostly seems not to care anymore what
happens in the Ukraine (of course, some hardcore hardliners still continue to hallucinate).
Hence the (relative) silence on this issue. What this tells the
Ukrainian politicians is that they are pretty much on their own. And
that is why they are taking matters in their own hands.
I
don’t think that it is worthwhile to plunge into all the personalities
and factions which are currently involved in the political struggle. I
can summarize it by saying that there are four main group currently
identifiable: bad, worse, even worse and the silent majority. Let’s
begin by the last one, the silent majority.
By
all accounts (and from all my personal contacts) it is pretty obvious
that the vast majority of those who could not leave the Ukraine are now
depressed, silent and in a “survival mode”. The Ukrainians, like the
Russians, are extremely good at this survival mode which a very painful
history has taught them: they could survive in conditions where
everybody else would perish. Their history has also taught them that
there are times when you want to stay low, shut up and focus on making
it through the day. I also think that most Ukrainians fully realize that
there is no faction/force out there representing their interest and
that means that they have absolutely no reason at all to get involved.
This has nothing to do with passivity or political ignorance: that is
common sense. Getting involved is what gets you killed. Hunkering down
until the worst of the storm passes is the only correct survival
technique in times of very ugly political struggles.
Then
there are bad, worse and even worse. Bad – that’s Poroshenko. Worse –
that’s the crazies à la Oleg Liashko. Even worse – that would be the
rabid ideologues like Tiagnibok or Farion. We can think of it as the
Crooks, the Clowns and the Nazis.
The Crooks, the Clown and the Nazis:
Right
now, the Crooks are still in power but they are struggling. Worse, the
Crooks are terrified of the Nazis, so they constantly have to engage
into a stream of concessions to try to appease them which, of course,
fails, and only emboldens the Nazis (sounds exactly like Trump’s
never-ending stream of concessions to the Neocons, doesn’t it?). As for
the Clowns, they can be bought by both sides, sometimes at the same
time, and they keep the people entertained by their antics. The Clowns
are really a byproduct of the terminally lunatic Ukrainian nationalist
ideology, but they don’t really represent a powerful constituency: the
Crooks and the Nazis are far more powerful. Still, don’t dismiss the
Clowns too soon, because they could suddenly switch to the Crooks or the
Nazis depending who offers them a better deal (or scares them most).
This
would all seem rather amusing if yet another Urkonazi attack was not a
very real possibility. Here is how this could happen.
The
Crooks are barely holding on to power, and they might have to start a
war to deflect the mounting political pressure against them in another
direction. Wars are good for circling the wagons and crushing the
opposition.
The
Clowns, due to their ideology, would have to approve of a new war. They
simply could not say anything against it. If a war is launched, they
would have to give it a standing ovation. Besides, if they tried any
form of disagreement they would be easily crushed by the Crooks and
Nazis. So the Clowns will always support whatever the other two factions
agree upon.
As for for Nazis, well, war against Russia and anything Russian is their raison d’être,
the very core of their identity and the purpose of their lives. The
Ukronazis have a profoundly revanchist worldview and agenda and if
defeating Russia is not an option (although some of them won’t even
accept that as a fact of life) then killing or expelling all the
non-Ukronazis from the Ukraine is an acceptable substitute for them.
Yup, they even have some convoluted racial purity theories (Ukie Aryans
versus Finno-Ugric Russian Mongols). True, bona fide Nazis are a
minority in the Ukraine, but the compensate for that by having guns,
lots of guns.
What
has kept the Ukronazis from attacking since their last attempt is the
painful memory of the crushing defeat they suffered at the hands of the
Novorussians. But herein also lies a very real risk: defeats often make
armies better, victories often makes them complacent. When I hear the
Novorussians speaking of “next time we go to Kiev” I hope that their
confidence is warranted, but I am afraid that they might be
underestimating the opponent.
Are the sides really ready for a resumption of warfare?
In
truth it is very hard to assess the chances of another Ukronazi attack.
On one hand, the Ukronazi forces have had two years to regroup, lick
their wounds, reorganize, rearm, retrain, etc. Most importantly, it
appears that they have built defensive positions in depth, possibly
including 2 or even 3 defensive echelons. Why does defense matter?
Because if your defensive positions are strong, then the risk of
counter-attack by the enemy’s forces are much lower and that, in turn,
means that your offensive is far less likely to end up surrounded in a
“cauldron” (I simplify here, in reality this is a little more
complicated as it depends on the depth of your attack, but never mind
that). A couple of years is a lot of time to dig in and prepare for
defense and without access to classified data it is hard to gauge how
effective these efforts have been. In terms of new equipment (whether
Ukrainian or new deliveries from the Empire), this will make no
difference at all, that’s just political talk. My advice is that as soon
as you hear or read anything about the delivery of “lethal weapons” you
ignore everything that comes after that. Ditto for training by Polish
or US experts. That is just propaganda. What is not propaganda is the
intelligence support offered by the Empire overtly (satellites) or
covertly (EU ‘observers’ etc.). That and the fact that the Ukronazis
have a 2-2.5:1 numerical advantage over the Novorussians.
Much
of the same could be said about the Novorussians: they also have had 2
years to dig in, by all reports they have now integrated their forces
into a regular army capable of operational-depth counter-offensives,
their morale and training is probably much higher than on the Ukronazi
side and they can count on Russian support (intelligence, logistics,
training, etc.). Also, they would have the home turf advantage. Finally,
and Putin very clearly stated that recently, Russia will not allow the
military reconquest of Novorussia, which means that even if the
Ukronazis somehow succeed in breaking through the Novorussian defenses
they will be engaged by the Russian armed forces, primarily by
missile/bombing strikes at which point the war will stop in less than 24
hours.
The
big conceptual mistake, however, would be to assume that the Ukronazi
really want to reconquer Novorussia (or Crimea, for that matter). In
reality, everybody knows that these territories are gone forever and that Kiev simply has no means to control them even without Russian assistance.
Let me repeat this: even if by some magical effect the Russians were to
let the Ukronazis invade the Donbass this would result in a
fantastically nasty guerrilla war by the locals which the Ukronazis
would have no chance at all to defeat. Yes, it would be a bloodbath, but
it would never end with a workable pacification of the Donbass my the
Ukronazis. I would therefore say that the role of Russia is not to
prevent Kiev from regaining the control of the Donbass, but to prevent a
bloodbath in the Donbass.
The real goal: not to win, but to trigger a Russian intervention (same old, same old)
Now
I have been saying for years that the real goal of the junta is to
force Russia to openly intervene in the Donbass. As soon as the Russians
overtly get involved that would kill the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements, it
would turn the current disaster in the Nazi occupied Ukraine into a war
of national liberation against the hated Moskals, NATO would immediately
put an end to all that recent cozying-up of various EU political
parties towards Russia and the AngloZionst Empire’s wet dream would
finally come true: such a Russian intervention would usher a new Cold,
possibly even Tepid, War in Europe thereby giving a meaning to NATO
(finally!) and crushing any kind of anti-imperial feelings in Europe.
The Balts and the Poles would finally be secure in their mission to
“protect Europe from a resurgent Russia” and the US Neocons would have a
big victory party. True, Russia would liberate all of Novorussia in 24
hours or less and, yes, with Russian help the Novorussians could push
the line of contact (well, at this point, the frontline) pretty much as
far West as they would want to. But that would be a small victory in the
context of a global political catastrophe (along with an ugly
bloodbath).
This is why the Russians have made a huge effort not
to intervene, even if that has costs them a lot of political capital
(there are still those out there who speak of a Russian “sell-out” of
the Donbass). Unlike their western counterparts, who still don’t
understand that the purpose of warfare is to achieve a political
objective, the Russians fully realize that an (easy) military victory
against the Ukronazis would come at a cost of an immense political
disaster. The last thing the Kremlin wants is to copy what the US
Americans did in Iraq and Afghanistan: begin by an easy victory, declare
victory, and then end up with an absolute disaster on their hands from
which they sill are unable to extricate themselves. In this respect, the
Crimea was a totally different and unique case: a vitally important
piece of land, which historically was Russian, populated by people who
were overwhelmingly pro-Russian (or, simply, Russian), with easy to
control choke-points connecting with the Nazi occupied Ukraine and
fantastic economic prospects. And yet, even in these ideal condition,
the Russian economy is struggling to rebuild this relatively small
territory.
It
is pretty clear that at the end of the day, Russia will also have to
pay for most the reconstruction of the Donbass, however hard this will
be. But as much as that is possible, Russia would much prefer to make
the reconstruction of the Ukraine an international problem, yet another
reason for her to try to avoid any real, overt, military intervention.
Because once Russia occupies any territory, she owns it and she becomes
responsible for it.
The
bottom line is this: we don’t hear much about the Ukraine right now
because at least the Americans seem to have given up on this entire
project and because they are busy with more important issues
(self-destructing, mostly). But that does not mean that the situation in
the Ukraine cannot suddenly reignite with very serious international
consequences.
So
when I speak of Crooks, Clowns and Nazis, I am not taking these issues
lightly at all. Yes, they truly are crooks, clowns and Nazis, but they
also very dangerous individuals, especially collectively.
A tiny ray of hope for “less bad”?
Rumor
has it that the two big figures behind the scenes in the Ukraine are
Igor Kolomoiskii (who now has a personal vendetta against Poroshenko and
Saakashvili) and Iulia Timoshenko. I honestly have no means to assess
these claims, but I will say that while these two are truly profoundly
evil and hateful people (Kolomoiskii was probably deeply involved in the
MH-17 false flag), neither of them is stupid. Furthermore, they are
both Crooks, not Clowns or Nazis, which means that they can be
negotiated with, however distasteful this maybe. Last but not least,
they both have a real power base in the Ukraine, money in Kolomoiskii’s
case, true popularity in Timoshenko’s case. In this I see a tiny ray of
hope.
With
the Americans busy fighting each other internally, and with the
Europeans slowly waking up to the total disaster “their” (it is not
really “their’s” – but nevermind that) Ukrainian policy has been, maybe,
just maybe, there is a tiny chance of, say, some EU leaders getting
together with, say, Timoshenko (Kolomoiskii will never be a public
official again, he will pull the strings in the back) to sit down with
the Russians and the Novorussians and finally seriously negotiate some
kind of end to this very dangerous situation. Remember, Poroshenko is a
pure US puppet, and he is weak. There is no way he could negotiate anything
of substance any more. All he needs to do now is to prepare his flight
to the US, UK or Israel. But Timoshenko is still “for real” and she is
far more capable of dealing with the Nazis than Poroshenko, his
billions, his chocolate factory and his Eltsin-like dependence on
alcohol.
Of
course, there is “the devil you know” argument. And in many ways,
Poroshenko being the greedy weak booze-soaked coward that he is looks
like the lesser evil. The problem with that is that he is terrified of
the Nazis and that they are either paralyzing him or making him do
stupid things (like the recent law making Ukrainian the sole language
used in schools). And for all the desperate window-dressing the fact
remains is that the Ukraine is already a failed state which is going
down the tubes with a momentum which nobody can stop, at least not with
the current political deadlock in Kiev. Still, we should also remember
that Eltsin was also a greedy weak booze-soaked coward, but that did not
prevent him form triggering the bloodbath of the First Chechen war.
Greedy weak booze-soaked cowards can be extremely dangerous.
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