The New Great Game Round-Up: March 24, 2015
March 24, 2015 1 Comment
| statements." As members of the Georgian government never grow tired of emphasizing, Georgia's Euro-Atlantic integration is irreversible. The next step on this path is a NATO training center. But for some inexplicable reason, this doesn't go down particularly well in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia. South Ossetian leader Leonid Tibilov recently cited NATO's activities in Georgia and Tbilisi's refusal to sign a document on the non-use of force against South Ossetia and Abkhazia as key reasons for signing a wide-ranging alliance and integration treaty with Russia:
Putin signs treaty integrating South Ossetia into Russia Russia tightened its control Wednesday over a second breakaway region of Georgia, with President Vladimir Putin and the leader of South Ossetia signing a new treaty that calls for nearly full integration. Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili denounced the signing as a "destructive" move against his nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity and said it would further exacerbate tensions. The United States, the European Union and NATO also strongly condemned the signing. Under the agreement signed Wednesday in the Kremlin, South Ossetia's military and economy are to be incorporated into Russia's. The treaty also promises to make it easier for South Ossetians to get Russian citizenship and to raise salaries for civil servants and state pensions.
…
Saakashvili Launches Maidan to Topple Georgian Government
Thousands in Georgia march call for government to step down Tens of thousands of Georgians joined a protest rally Saturday in the ex-Soviet republic's capital Tbilisi to demand the government's resignation, claimed it has mishandled the battered economy. Protesters packed Tbilisi's central Freedom Square after being called onto the streets by exiled former president Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement (UNM), before marching towards the State Chancellery building, the seat of government. Saakashvili addressed the rally by video link from Brussels as the cheering crowd chanted his name. "We are united by our shared task to liberate Georgia from the government which destroys our country," Saakashvili said in an emotional address.
…
Just as was the case in Ukraine, the organizers of the "Georgian Maidan" spared no expense to bring protesters to the capital but it appears that Saakashvili's UNM won't be able to repeat the "success" of the Euromaidan. For one, Saakashvili and his party face a lot of opposition in Georgia. As soon as the UNM announced its plans to rally in Tbilisi, activists of Georgia's ruling party took to the streets attacking the local office of the UNM in the western city of Zugdidi and on Saturday, there were again counter-protests. But the key reason why Saakashvili's Maidan is doomed to fail is that the U.S. and the EU don't support his plans. Washington and Brussels have no reason to topple the Georgian government - for now. Despite the lack of Western support, the UNM vowed to hold more protests until the government resigns. Furthermore, Saakashvili's party wants to initiate a no-confidence vote against the government. To this end, the UNM needs the support of Irakli Alasania's Free Democrats:
FD not to Join UNM’s Calls for Launch of No-Confidence Vote Against Govt Irakli Alasania, leader of opposition Free Democrats, said his party, which holds eight seats in the Parliament, will not join UNM parliamentary minority group’s initiative to launch no-confidence vote against the government. “Ivanishvili and Saakashvili need each other for scaring people with each other. Georgia’s future needs none of them. Georgia needs development and not the return in Saakashvili’s past,” Alasania said. “Those people who rallied [at UNM-organized anti-government demonstration on March 21] were expressing general spirit in Georgia that [government’s] inaction caused backsliding. Soon we will present our plan of economic development and we will have our agenda in the parliament and we will not support their [UNM’s] initiative in this particular case.” Alasania, Georgia’s ex-defense minister, made remarks while speaking with Georgian journalists in Brussels, where he met NATO Deputy Secretary General, Alexander Vershbow.
…
Apart from Kiev, Brussels is apparently the place to be for former Georgian officials. Considering that Alasania is the darling of Washington and Brussels, his refusal to team up with Saakashvili clearly indicates that the U.S. and the EU have other ideas than Saakashvili. The former Georgian president should have asked his friends in Brussels what they think of his plans when he addressed the crowd in Tbilisi from the Belgian capital. Perhaps the success of the Maidan has gone to Saakashvili's head. Thanks to his friends in the West, Saakashvili is free to fuel the conflict with Russia and to plot toppling democratically elected governments instead of sitting behind bars but his crimes have not been forgotten and it is doubtful that he can return to his home country anytime soon. The Georgian authorities make sure that even young pupils learn everything about "Saakashvili's bloody regime" and Tbilisi has not given up on prosecuting the former president as well as his associates:
Georgia modifies charges against five ex-officials including Saakashvili The Georgian Prosecutor General’s Office on Saturday modified the charges against five former high officials, including ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. In Saakashvili’s and former Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili’s cases, the charges were clarified, but when it comes to former Justice Minister Zurab Adeishvili, former Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili, and former Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava, the charges were made more serious.
…
Azerbaijan: Pipelines, Failed Conquests & Russian Weapons
Construction of Tanap pipeline begins in Turkey as EU and Russia spar for upper hand
A long awaited plan by the European Union to import Caspian gas moved forward this week as construction work began on the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (Tanap) in Turkey. Tanap is the central link in the EU-backed Southern Gas Corridor, a jigsaw of existing and planned pipelines designed to diversify Caspian energy export routes and reduce European dependence on Russian gas. Estimated to cost $10bn, Tanap will tie into the existing South Caucasus pipeline that already supplies Azerbaijani gas to Georgia and east Turkey, and transport gas over a distance of 1,850km to Turkey’s western border with the EU. From there, gas is expected to enter the planned Trans-Adriatic Pipeline crossing Greece and Albania to Italy.
…
Turkey and Azerbaijan are the driving forces behind the TANAP and TAP pipeline projects, which are of strategic importance for both countries. Even as some companies have pulled out of the projects due to soaring costs and delays, Ankara and Baku kept on pushing the construction of the pipelines in accordance with instructions from Washington and Brussels. It remains to be seen if this will pay off but it is safe to say that the close cooperation in the energy sector has cemented ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan. As frequently discussed, Turkey is Azerbaijan's closest ally and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev often turns to his buddy Erdogan when he needs support. During his visit to Kars, Aliyev used the opportunity to stir up hatred against a common enemy - "the invader Armenia, that is laying down groundless claims against Turkey and Azerbaijan." The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh has escalated a few times in recent months and shortly after Aliyev gave this bellicose speech in Kars, Azerbaijani forces launched another attack:
Armenian soldiers killed in clashes with Azeri troops near Karabakh At least three Armenian soldiers were killed and four wounded in clashes with troops from Azerbaijan on Thursday near the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, but the two sides gave conflicting death tolls and disputed who was to blame. Renewed violence this year along the border area has underlined the risk of a wider conflict breaking out in the South Caucasus, which is crossed by oil and gas pipelines. The separatist region's defense ministry said in a statement that three Armenian soldiers had died after Azeri commandos attacked their position. "The Armenian side forced the enemy to escape after a two hour clash," the statement said.
…
The attack appears to have failed miserably. According to the Armenian side, 14 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed. As the Armenians picked up the Israeli gear left behind, Azerbaijan's notoriously unreliable Defense Ministry tried to win the propaganda war by claiming that 20 Armenian soldiers had been killed and wounded. Both sides regularly exaggerate the casualties of the enemy but in contrast to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh release the names of their dead soldiers. The propaganda war is currently Armenia's least problem. Yerevan is primarily worried about Azerbaijan's arms procurement binge and where these weapons are coming from. A recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) highlighted that Azerbaijan was the second-largest arms importer in Europe over the past five years and that 85 percent of these arms imports came from Russia. Armenia has long complained that its strategic ally is supplying its arch-enemy with weapons and the SIPRI report is adding fuel to the fire:
Armenia leader: Russia's selling weapons to Azerbaijan is a problem President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan thanked Russia for the support that the country has provided to Armenia since independence. Speaking during a media forum in Yerevan, he said military and technical cooperation plays a great role in relations with Russia. “In this term, we are concerned about the fact that Russia, due to different reasons, is selling weapons to Azerbaijan, and the problem is not the quality of weapons, but the fact that an Armenian soldier standing on the border realizes that they are trying to kill him from Russian weapons,” President said during “At the Foot of Mount Ararat” media forum.
…
Putin Pushes EEU Integration as Kyrgyzstan Fears "Ukrainian Scenario"
Russia's Putin calls for regional currency union President Vladimir Putin proposed on Friday creating a regional currency union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, Russia's partners in a political and economic union made up of former Soviet republics. Putin made his proposal at a meeting with the Belarussian and Kazakh presidents which highlighted the challenges facing the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union following the fall in global oil prices and the decline of the Russian rouble. "The time has come to start thinking about forming a currency union," Putin said after the talks in the Kazakh capital Astana with Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
…
So far, the remaining EEU members have been less enthusiastic about creating a common currency. Lately, there has been some support for this idea in Belarus but others are still not convinced of Putin's proposal. Meanwhile, the Kyrgyz government is beating the big drum for joining the EEU. In May, Kyrgyzstan will become the next member of the trade bloc unless the U.S. manages to topple the government in the next few weeks. That seems to be the task of color revolution expert Richard Miles who was recalled from retirement and appointed as charge d'affaires at the U.S. Embassy to Bishkek until a new ambassador is confirmed by the Senate. In the last few months, there have been some indications that Washington is planning a Kyrgyz Maidan and Richard Miles' arrival in the country adds to the list of suspicious activities. His track record is well known, even in Kyrgyzstan:
Protesters Rally In Front Of U.S. Embassy In Bishkek Some 30 representatives of Kyrgyzstan's Communist Party and the Russian World Foundation picketed the U.S. Embassy in Bishkek, protesting appointment of Richard Miles as the interim Charge d'Affaires at the U.S. diplomatic mission in the Kyrgyz capital. The leader of the Kyrgyz Communist Party, Klara Ajibekova, attended the rally on February 27. She told RFE/RL that the arrival of Mr. Miles to the post was a "significant event" as "in every country, where Miles worked as diplomat, armed conflicts erupted," and therefore "we do not want Kyrgyzstan to find itself in such a situation."
Richard Miles assumed the position of interim Charge d'Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic, on February 13, as the arrival of Ambassador designate Sheila Gwaltney is still pending.
…
Kyrgyzstan has learned a lesson from previous color revolutions. Inspired by Russia's foreign agent law, some Kyrgyz lawmakers are looking to contain the influence of hostile "non-governmental" organizations before Miles & Co. launch a Maidan in Bishkek. A parliamentary committee recently approved a bill targeting NGOs that receive from abroad. The bill has been sent to other committees for further discussions. Kyrgyzstan's Justice Ministry stated last year that existing legislation was sufficient to deal with the threat but many people seem to disagree. A group of nationalist activists announced a few days ago the formation of the paramilitary militia "El Namysy" (The People's Dignity) to defend Kyrgyzstan from "foreign threats," which includes NGOs. One foreign threat that didn't make El Namysy's list and has long been tolerated by the Kyrgyz authorities are the Gülen schools in the country but Erdogan's fight against the Gülen movement has not gone unnoticed in Kyrgyzstan. Perhaps somebody will take measures against this foreign threat as well:
Kyrgyz parliament suggests checking activities of all Turkish schools “Sebat” Kyrgyz parliament suggests checking the activities of all Turkish schools "Sebat" in case of violations to close them. This was stated by the deputy Zhyldyzkan Dzholdoshova. According to her, she read that the head of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan negatively spoke about these schools. "It means a lot. I believe that it is necessary to check these high schools. We must form a government commission or law enforcement agencies have to check it. Moreover, not only catering, but also what they teach our children," she added.
…
Christoph Germann is an independent analyst and researcher based in Germany, where he is currently studying political science. His work focuses on the New Great Game in Central Asia and the Caucasus region. You can visit his website here
No comments:
Post a Comment