BARDA’s Big Bird Flu Vax Contract With Moderna
- by Marco Cáceres
- Published
- Opinion
Last month, Moderna, Inc. slashed its revenue forecast for this year by $1 billion, prompting its stock price to plunge by more than 20 percent to $33.44. In September 2024, Moderna estimated its revenue for 2025 would be $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, but the company revised its forecast on Jan. 13, 2025 to $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, causing its stock to lose two-thirds of its value over the past year.1 2 3 4 According to Moderna CFO James Mock:
As we head into 2025, there are a handful of uncertainties that we are planning for. As of this time period, we are planning for them to be headwinds. They could be tail winds, but right now we’re seeing them as headwinds.1
The lower revenue projection by Moderna was attributed largely to the continuing decline in consumer demand for its Spikevax mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) COVID-19 biologic, which ended in 2024 with sales of just over $3 billion, compared to $6.7 billion in 2023 and $18 billion in 2022.5 6 7
No matter, though. As if on cue, the U.S. government under the Biden administration stepped in to help prop up Moderna’s sagging fortunes. On Jan. 17, the Department of Health and Human Services’ (HHS) Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) gave Moderna $590 million to speed up development of influenza vaccines, including one to help protect against H1N1 bird flu. The new infusion of cash is in addition to the $176 million awarded to Moderna by BARDA on July 2, 2024 to develop mRNA-based “pandemic influenza vaccine.”8 9 10
“Avian flu variants have proven to be particularly unpredictable and dangerous to humans in the past. That is why this response has been a top priority for the Biden-Harris Administration and HHS,” said HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra. “Accelerating the development of new vaccines will allow us to stay ahead and ensure that Americans have the tools they need to stay safe.”10
With the release of its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2024 on Feb. 14, 2025, Moderna has stuck with its $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion revenue forecast for 2025, even though it experienced a wider loss than expected for the final quarter—revenue of $966 million, down 65 percent from the same period in 2023. The latest revenue forecast for 2025 has obviously already factored in the money coming in from Moderna’s massive influenza vaccine contract from BARDA.11
Will Kennedy Cancel Moderna’s Contract to Develop an mRNA Bird Flu Product
Now, the question is what happens to that BARDA contract with Moderna under the Trump administration with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. being sworn in as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HSS)? Kennedy has said little about his position on the development of a bird flu vaccine.
During one of his confirmation hearings, Kennedy was asked by Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey if he would be willing to distribute an mRNA bird flu vaccine. Kennedy responded that he would but, when Sen. Kim asked him specifically about distributing an mRNA bird flu vaccine, Kennedy said, “I’m not going to pick a vaccine right now; you know I need to look at all the data.”12
Moderna’s BARDA contract is for the company to develop an mRNA bird flu biological product that will be labeled a vaccine just like the mRNA COVID-19 biological product, which has racked up more than 1.6 million adverse event reports to the federal Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), was labeled a vaccine even though it did not prevent infection with and transmission of the mutated SARS-CoV-2 virus.13
With regard to bird flu vaccines in general, Kennedy has written there is “no evidence these vaccines will work, and they appear to be dangerous.”14
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