Oil Soars Ahead Of Surprising Joint Saudi, Russian Statement, Which Fails To Freeze Oil Production
by Tyler Durden
Sep 5, 2016 6:20 AM
As the G-20 summit drew to its conclusion, a
moment of sheer drama erupted earlier this morning as oil exploded
higher following speculation Saudi Arabia was prepared to make a
“significant” joint announcement with Russia (the market promptly
assumed this meant a preliminary oil production freeze) following
discussions over promoting market stability.
As the chart below shows, oil futures soared by several dollars in a matter of minutes, after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to work together to stabilize prices following Sunday’s meeting between Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Vladimir Putin. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih will make the announcement at the G20 summit in China on Monday, according to his chief of staff. Crude rose the most in two weeks on Friday as Putin said he’d like OPEC and Russia to agree to an output freeze. “The market seems to be positioning for the vague possibility of a substantial statement” by Saudi Arabia, Axel Herlinghaus, senior commodities analyst at DZ Bank AG said by e-mail.
And sure enough, this is what happened in advance of the announcement:
The actual announcement, however, when delivered was somewhat
disappointing as Russia and Saudi Arabia announced they have signed a
joint statement aimed at stabilizing the crude market, which would see
the two nations create... working groups and monitor the market. In
other words, more of the same. The document was signed by Russian
Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry
and Mineral Resources Khalid Al-Falih. According to the
painfully vague "agreement", the two countries will develop cooperation in the oil and gas sector to implement new technologies, and could create a joint database on advanced energy technologies. Russia and Saudi Arabia would also set up a working group to monitor the crude market and hammer out recommendations for providing its stability. According to the statement, the first working group meeting will be held in October. The energy ministers of the two countries will meet in October in Algeria, and in November in Vienna.
Here are the full details of what many have already defined as the very definition of "peak jawboning" by the two desperate countries, who are hoping oil will surge even as both pump near record amounts:
And since both Iran and Iraq will demand to be exempt from any supply freeze, something all other OPEC nations who are producing below capacity will demand as well, we expect that nothing will come out of the latest soon to be failed attempt to limit production, especially since the biggest wildcard in the world right now is not OPEC supply but shale output coming back on line as well as the stready decling in Chinese crude demand.
We also expect the algos to retrace most of today's vertical move higher following this disappointing "joint statement" which only confirmed how desperate for higher prices both Saudi Arabia and Russia are, and yet - for the time being at least - are unwilling to actually do anything to achieve these higher prices.
As the chart below shows, oil futures soared by several dollars in a matter of minutes, after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to work together to stabilize prices following Sunday’s meeting between Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Vladimir Putin. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih will make the announcement at the G20 summit in China on Monday, according to his chief of staff. Crude rose the most in two weeks on Friday as Putin said he’d like OPEC and Russia to agree to an output freeze. “The market seems to be positioning for the vague possibility of a substantial statement” by Saudi Arabia, Axel Herlinghaus, senior commodities analyst at DZ Bank AG said by e-mail.
And sure enough, this is what happened in advance of the announcement:
painfully vague "agreement", the two countries will develop cooperation in the oil and gas sector to implement new technologies, and could create a joint database on advanced energy technologies. Russia and Saudi Arabia would also set up a working group to monitor the crude market and hammer out recommendations for providing its stability. According to the statement, the first working group meeting will be held in October. The energy ministers of the two countries will meet in October in Algeria, and in November in Vienna.
Here are the full details of what many have already defined as the very definition of "peak jawboning" by the two desperate countries, who are hoping oil will surge even as both pump near record amounts:
- SAUDI, RUSSIA DISCUSSED OIL MKTS, TECHNOLOGY COOPERATION: FALIH
- SAUDI, RUSSIA HAD PRODUCTIVE MEETING THAT BROUGHT THEM CLOSER
- SAUDI, RUSSIA AGREEMENT SHOWS EXCELLENT RELATIONSHIP: FALIH
- SAUDI, RUSSIA HAVE CONSISTENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM VIEWS: FALIH
- SAUDI OIL MINISTER SAYS OIL DROP HURT CONSUMERS, PRODUCERS
- SAUDI, RUSSIA AGREED TO WORK TOGETHER TO AVOID CATASTROPHE
- SAUDIS OPTIMISTIC THAT ALGIERS MEETING WILL BRING AGREEMENT
- IRAN SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH PRE-SANCTION OUTPUT: NOVAK
- SAUDI, RUSSIA TOOK BIG STEP TO BRING OIL MKT TO BALANCE
- RUSSIA, SAUDI ENTERING NEW ERA OF ENERGY COOPERATION: RUSSIA
- RUSSIA, SAUDI COOPERATION WILL HAVE CRITICAL IMPACT: NOVAK
- RUSSIA, SAUDI AGREED TO COORDINATE JOINT ACTION TO STEADY MKTS
- RUSSIA, SAUDI HAVE DISCUSSED DIFFERENT OPTIONS: NOVAK
- RUSSIA, SAUDI TO FORM WORKING GROUP, MONITOR OIL MKTS: INTERFAXjohnson weld
- SAUDI MINISTER SAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH OPEC
- RUSSIA, SAUDI OPTIONS HAVE INCLUDED POSSIBLE OUTPUT FREEZE
- SAUDI OIL MINISTER: NO NEED NOW TO FREEZE OIL OUTPUT
And since both Iran and Iraq will demand to be exempt from any supply freeze, something all other OPEC nations who are producing below capacity will demand as well, we expect that nothing will come out of the latest soon to be failed attempt to limit production, especially since the biggest wildcard in the world right now is not OPEC supply but shale output coming back on line as well as the stready decling in Chinese crude demand.
We also expect the algos to retrace most of today's vertical move higher following this disappointing "joint statement" which only confirmed how desperate for higher prices both Saudi Arabia and Russia are, and yet - for the time being at least - are unwilling to actually do anything to achieve these higher prices.
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